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Well, THAT was a lot of fun! And by "fun," I mean "the opposite of fun."
After going through everything I did in the post below this one, I've determined that it's impossible, at this point, to say "if the Bills get to 10 wins, they are guaranteed a playoff spot." That's not to say that things can't change by Sunday night.
For more in-depth analysis and also a bunch of stuff that's pretty irrelevant, check out the post below but for a synopsis, here ya go.
The Bills are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose in Cleveland. It's possible to lose one of their remaining games and still get in... just not this one.
If BUF does get to 10 wins, there are 4 other AFC teams which could tie them at 10-6. Here are the tiebreaker scenarios.
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2 TEAM TIEBREAKER
BUF/PIT- PIT wins head to head
BUF/JAX- JAX wins head to head
BUF/CLE- BUF wins head-to-head
BUF/TEN- BUF wins winning percentage vs common opponents
TEN 2-3(40%) vs JAX(x2), DEN, CIN, NYJ
BUF 3-2(60%) vs JAX, DEN, CIN, NYJ(x2)
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3-5 TEAM TIEBREAKER
BUF/PIT/JAX/CLE/TEN- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head), JAX eliminates TEN OR TEN eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... SEE BUF/PIT/JAX or BUF/PIT/TEN
BUF/PIT/JAX/CLE- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head)... SEE BUF/PIT/JAX
BUF/PIT/JAX/TEN- JAX eliminates TEN OR TEN eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... SEE BUF/PIT/JAX or BUF/PIT/TEN
BUF/PIT/CLE/TEN- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head)... see BUF/PIT/TEN
BUF/PIT/JAX- If PIT beats JAX in week 15, BUF is eliminated (head to head losses to both teams.) If JAX beats PIT in week 15, it is too early to tell because conference records can not be determined. (All 3 teams would have 7 conference wins. JAX would have 2 more AFC games to play, PIT would have 1, BUF would have none.)
BUF/PIT/CLE- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head)... see BUF/PIT
BUF/PIT/TEN- TBD due to conference record. BUF and TEN would each have 7 conference wins, PIT would have either 7 or 8.
BUF/JAX/CLE/TEN- JAX eliminates TEN OR TE eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... see BUF/JAX/CLE or BUF/CLE/TEN
BUF/JAX/CLE- All would have 7 conference wins. Not enough common games to use a tiebreaker. Next would be strength of victory, which can't be determined yet (but wouldn't bode well for BUF.)
BUF/JAX/TEN- JAX eliminates TEN OR TE eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... see BUF/JAX or BUF/TEN
BUF/CLE/TEN- All would have 7 conference wins. Not enough common games to use a tiebreaker. Next would be strength of victory, which can't be determined yet (but wouldn't bode well for BUF.)
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