First, the standings and remaining schedule for the teams involved in the conversation:
NE 13-0 ( NYJ, MIA, @NYG )
IND 11-2 ( @OAK, HOU, TEN )
PIT 9-4 ( JAX, @STL, @BAL )
JAX 9-4 ( @PIT, OAK, @HOU )
SD 8-5 ( DET, DEN, @OAK )
CLE 8-5 ( BUF, @CIN, SF )
BUF 7-6 ( @CLE, NYG, @PHI )
TEN 7-6 ( @KC , NYJ, @IND )
DEN 6-7 ( @HOU, @SD, MIN )
HOU 6-7 ( DEN, @IND, JAX )
***
This stuff is very confusing but it's my project today to get it all figured out. I'm not reading anyone else's interpretation, just going through the tiebreakers and possible scenarios and putting the results here. I'm aware of the ongoing debate regarding the "just win 3 games and you're in" scenario for the Bills. I don't believe it to be true, but I'm going to figure it out. More to come.
***
NFL's 3 way tiebreakers listed at the bottom of this post.
***
Just thinking out loud here.
I think the best way to do this is to start at the top of the conference, figure out which teams are eligible for which seeds, and go from there. As I'm working through this, I'm listing teams that are candidates based upon record only. As I go through tiebreakers and eliminate them, I'll remove them from the candidates list.
One Seed candidates: NE, IND
NE has clinched the AFC East (and therefore a playoff spot) but has not clinched the top seed in the conference. A win in any one of their 3 remaining games (or any loss by IND) would lock up the top seed for NE, by virtue of a head-to-head victory over IND. If NE loses all 3 remaining games and IND wins all 3 remaining games, IND earns top seed, NE falls to second but no further.
Two Seed candidates: (NE), IND, PIT, JAX, SD, CLE
IND has clinched a playoff spot but that's all. IND could still be caught by JAX for the division and would then become a 5 or 6 seed.
Three Seed candidates: (IND), PIT, JAX, SD, CLE, DEN
JAX can still pass IND, CLE can still pass PIT, DEN can still pass SD meaning each could win a division and wind up 3rd.
Four Seed candidates: (IND), PIT, JAX, SD, CLE, DEN
JAX can still pass IND, CLE can still pass PIT, DEN can still pass SD meaning each could win a division and wind up 4th.
Five Seed candidates: (IND), PIT, JAX, SD, CLE, BUF, TEN, DEN, HOU
Six Seed candidates: (IND), PIT, JAX, SD, CLE, BUF, TEN, DEN, HOU
***
I realize this doesn't yet tell us anything about the Bills' ability to guarantee a playoff berth with 10 wins, but I'm still working on it.
For now, here are the teams and where they can finish:
NE 1-2
IND 1-6
PIT/JAX/SD/CLE 2-6 or out
BUF/TEN/DEN/HOU 5-6 or out
***
A CLE win over BUF would put BUF at 7-7 with a 6-6 record in the AFC. This would make it impossible for BUF to pass NE, IND, PIT, JAX, or CLE. With the one remaining playoff spot reserved for the AFC West winner (SD or DEN) BUF would be eliminated from playoff contention.
A BUF win over CLE would put BUF at 8-6 with a 7-5 record in the AFC. It then becomes possible for BUF to wind up 10-6. PIT, JAX, CLE, TEN are the other 4 AFC teams which could land at 10-6. Now it's time to figure out 2 team and multi-team tiebreakers for each possible scenario. (I'm ignoring the remote possibility of any tie games.)
***
2 TEAM TIEBREAKER
BUF/PIT- PIT wins head to head
BUF/JAX- JAX wins head to head
BUF/CLE- BUF wins head-to-head
BUF/TEN- BUF wins winning percentage vs common opponents
TEN 2-3(40%) vs JAX(x2), DEN, CIN, NYJ
BUF 3-2(60%) vs JAX, DEN, CIN, NYJ(x2)
***
3-5 TEAM TIEBREAKER
BUF/PIT/JAX/CLE/TEN- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head), JAX eliminates TEN OR TEN eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... SEE BUF/PIT/JAX or BUF/PIT/TEN
BUF/PIT/JAX/CLE- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head)... SEE BUF/PIT/JAX
BUF/PIT/JAX/TEN- JAX eliminates TEN OR TEN eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... SEE BUF/PIT/JAX or BUF/PIT/TEN
BUF/PIT/CLE/TEN- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head)... see BUF/PIT/TEN
BUF/PIT/JAX- If PIT beats JAX in week 15, BUF is eliminated (head to head losses to both teams.) If JAX beats PIT in week 15, it is too early to tell because conference records can not be determined. (All 3 teams would have 7 conference wins. JAX would have 2 more AFC games to play, PIT would have 1, BUF would have none.)
BUF/PIT/CLE- PIT eliminates CLE (head to head)... see BUF/PIT
BUF/PIT/TEN- TBD due to conference record. BUF and TEN would each have 7 conference wins, PIT would have either 7 or 8.
BUF/JAX/CLE/TEN- JAX eliminates TEN OR TE eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... see BUF/JAX/CLE or BUF/CLE/TEN
BUF/JAX/CLE- All would have 7 conference wins. Not enough common games to use a tiebreaker. Next would be strength of victory, which can't be determined yet (but wouldn't bode well for BUF.)
BUF/JAX/TEN- JAX eliminates TEN OR TE eliminates JAX (division record TBD in week 17)... see BUF/JAX or BUF/TEN
BUF/CLE/TEN- All would have 7 conference wins. Not enough common games to use a tiebreaker. Next would be strength of victory, which can't be determined yet (but wouldn't bode well for BUF.)
***
OFFICIAL NFL TIEBREAKERS:
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2, and repeated a third time, if necessary, to identify the third Wild Card. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.
OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division titleists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different divisions).
Posts
